IDC發布新冠肺炎對全球終端設備市場的影響評估 - Impact of IDC novel coronavirus pneumonia on global terminal equipment market

　　新浪科技訊 3月6日午間消息，IDC資訊針對有關新冠肺炎疫情的一系列突發新聞中總結整理的基礎統計數據、洞察和假設，以及截至2020年3月3日，疫情對終端設備市場的影響。
Sina Technology News novel coronavirus pneumonia, which was published in the afternoon of March 6th, IDC information was based on a series of news reports about new crown pneumonia epidemic, including the basic statistics, insights and assumptions, and the impact of the epidemic on the terminal equipment market as of March 3, 2020.

　　受新冠肺炎疫情影響，中國許多關鍵科技產業中心的製造、交通、物流等行業都陷入停擺，導致傳統農曆春節假期后復工復產推遲。企業將原計劃的工廠停工時間推遲至數周之後，不少企業自2月17日起陸續開始復工。物流、勞動力供應、交通受到的影響將可能持續數周，乃至數月。因此，新冠肺炎疫情已經開始對2020全球設備市場造成影響。
Novel coronavirus pneumonia affected many industries of China's key technology industries, such as manufacturing, transportation and logistics. After delaying the planned shutdown of the factory for several weeks, many enterprises began to resume work from February 17. The impact on logistics, labor supply and transportation may last for weeks or even months. Therefore, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation has begun to affect the 2020 global equipment market.

　　如下是我們在過去幾周針對有關新冠肺炎疫情的一系列突發新聞中總結整理的基礎統計數據、洞察和假設，以及截至2020年3月3日，疫情對終端設備市場的影響：
Novel coronavirus pneumonia, which is the first in a series of news reports in the past few weeks, is the key to the new crown pneumonia outbreak. The following are the basic statistics, insights and assumptions that have been made in the past few weeks. The impact of the epidemic on the terminal equipment market as of March 3, 2020 is as follows:

　　根據世界衛生組織（WHO）的每日情況報告，全球確診病例已達90893餘例，其中，中國境外共72個國家累計確診10566餘例。
According to the daily report of the World Health Organization (who), more than 90893 cases have been confirmed worldwide, including more than 10566 cases in 72 countries outside China.

　　供應商在年末趕製生產配件，讓部件存貨非常充裕，但物流停運使全球主要供應鏈運轉陷入停擺。
Suppliers rush to manufacture spare parts at the end of the year, which makes the spare parts inventory very abundant. However, the suspension of logistics makes the operation of major global supply chains in a state of suspension.

　　工廠、道路、交通本周陸續恢復，但因疫情隔離及其後續政策影響，中國的關鍵科技產業中心將受到嚴重衝擊。
Factories, roads and transportation have been restored this week, but China's key science and technology industry centers will be severely impacted by the isolation of the epidemic and its subsequent policies.

　　受疫情影響最嚴重的省份，分佈着面板、觸屏傳感器、光學電子元件、印刷電路板等關鍵部件生產基地。
The provinces most seriously affected by the epidemic are distributed with production bases for key components such as panels, touch-screen sensors, optical electronic components and printed circuit boards.

　　按照目前情況，2月份設備製造行業將遭受重大損失，3月及以後的不確定性加大，需要等到疫情趨穩后才能判斷。
According to the current situation, the equipment manufacturing industry will suffer heavy losses in February, and the uncertainty will increase in March and later, which can only be judged after the epidemic stabilizes.

　　2月17日，蘋果發布聲明稱，由於受新冠肺炎疫情影響，季度營收預測將難達預期，更多企業也會如此。
In February 17th, novel coronavirus pneumonia was affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and quarterly earnings forecasts would be difficult to predict, and more businesses would do so, apple said in a statement.

　　IDC認為，與過去相比，新冠肺炎疫情的爆發將給我們帶來更多不確定性。我們針對疫情的影響提出了三大類情景，分別是樂觀情景、概率情景和悲觀情景，每一種情形假設都將在後文得到深入分析。IDC是基於概率情景，即”U”形服務曲線進行預測的。以下是這三大類情景的簡要介紹：
IDC believes that the novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak will bring more uncertainty to us than in the past. We propose three scenarios for the impact of the epidemic, namely, optimistic scenario, probability scenario and pessimistic scenario. Each scenario assumption will be analyzed in depth later. IDC is based on probability scenario, i.e. "U" service curve. Here are a brief introduction to these three scenarios:

　　樂觀情景：樂觀情況下，供應鏈受到的影響將在本季度結束。中國在本季度的需求會受到大規模需求，但在此後將立即恢復正常。全球智能手機和個人計算設備（PCD）銷量將隨之恢復，在2020年呈現“V”形復蘇曲線。
Optimistic scenario: in an optimistic scenario, the impact on the supply chain will end in this quarter. China's demand will be large in the quarter, but will return to normal immediately thereafter. Global smartphone and personal computing device (PCD) sales will recover accordingly, presenting a "V" recovery curve in 2020.

　　概率情景：該情形以交通持續受阻、中國工人復工進展更為緩慢為前提，描述了製造和物流活動的多季度恢復過程。中國的需求衝擊將持續幾個季度，但在政府刺激和補貼政策之下，情況將在年底得到緩解。全球智能手機及個人計算設備的銷量，在2021年初會呈現“U”形復蘇曲線，同時周邊地區的需求也會受到短暫壓制。
Probability scenario: this scenario describes the multi quarter recovery process of manufacturing and logistics activities based on the premise of continuous traffic disruption and slower progress of Chinese workers' resumption. China's demand shock will last for several quarters, but will be eased by the end of the year under government stimulus and subsidy policies. The global sales of smart phones and personal computing devices will show a "U" shaped recovery curve in early 2021, while the demand of surrounding areas will also be temporarily suppressed.

　　悲觀情景：悲觀情況下，全年的供應鏈中斷的情況依然會存在，物流、交通亦會受到相似程度的影響。疫情波及全球，新冠肺炎在奪走大量生命的同時還會導致全球經濟衰退。全球設備市場呈“L”形衰退曲線，買家信心下降，預算收緊，整個行業重新洗牌，一年後或兩年後才能得以恢復。
Pessimistic scenario: under pessimistic circumstances, the annual supply chain disruption will still exist, and logistics and transportation will also be affected to a similar extent. The novel coronavirus pneumonia will cause global economic recession while the epidemic is spreading all over the world. The global equipment market is in an L-shaped recession curve. The confidence of buyers has declined, the budget has been tightened, and the whole industry has been reshuffled. Only one or two years later can it recover.

　　下圖分別是2020年第一季度到第四季度，各類場景下全球個人計算設備與智能手機年度增長預測對比：
The figure below shows the annual growth forecast of global personal computing devices and smart phones in various scenarios from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2020

　　疫情影響省份及關鍵製造產業分佈如下：
The affected provinces and key manufacturing industries are as follows:

數據來源：基礎地圖來自約翰·霍普金斯大學工程與系統科學中心2020年2月19日數據
data source: basic map from Johns Hopkins Center for engineering and Systems Sciences, February 19, 2020

　　“V”形復蘇曲線意味着什麼
What does the "V" recovery curve mean

　　“V”形復蘇曲線意味着，中國各大關鍵科技產業中心會在大範圍城市封鎖、工廠關停之後迅速恢復。供給側出貨量在2020年第二季度受到最嚴重的衝擊，在第三季度恢復正常。需求側受到的影響僅限於中國境內，隨着5月天氣轉暖，大批中國購物者將有力支撐需求的復蘇。智能手機方面，我們將2020全年預期從+1.5%下調至+0.8%。個人計算設備方面，如果下半年勢頭強勁，我們會將預期從-6.8%上調至-5.6%。（註：日益激烈的貿易戰是我們對美國和中國市場預測較保守的主要原因，如果第一階段貿易協議達成，並且沒有新冠肺炎疫情的影響，IDC原本會上調2020年的預期。）
The "V" recovery curve means that China's key science and technology industry centers will recover rapidly after a wide range of city closures and factory closures. Supply side shipments suffered the most severe impact in the second quarter of 2020 and returned to normal in the third quarter. The impact on the demand side is limited to China. With the warm weather in May, a large number of Chinese shoppers will strongly support the recovery of demand. In terms of smart phones, we cut our forecast for the whole year 2020 from + 1.5% to + 0.8%. In terms of personal computing equipment, if the momentum is strong in the second half of the year, we will increase our expectation from - 6.8% to - 5.6%. China's novel coronavirus pneumonia is the main reason for our conservative forecast of the US and Chinese market. If the first stage trade agreement was reached and no new crown pneumonia epidemic was affected, IDC would have raised its 2020 expectations.

　　“U”形復蘇曲線意味着什麼
What does "U" recovery curve mean

　　“U”形復蘇曲線預示着疫情影響將持續數個季度。在這一情景下，最低點仍是2020年第二季度，此時供應鏈表現疲弱，直至第三季度。2020年第三季度情況開始恢復，但年末的供應鏈恢復情況仍落後於需求（雖然已經比較接近了）。大量需求會幫助市場在2020年底到2021年初這段時期內緩慢恢復。雖然需求的衝擊會波及到東南亞其他地區，但在2021年初將會得到緩解。在這裡，我們會將智能手機市場預期從+1.5%下調至-2.3%，並將個人計算設備市場預期從-6.8% 下調至 -9.0%。
The U-shaped recovery curve indicates that the impact of the epidemic will last for several quarters. In this scenario, the lowest point is still the second quarter of 2020, when supply chain performance is weak until the third quarter. The situation began to recover in the third quarter of 2020, but the recovery of supply chain at the end of the year still lags behind the demand (although it is relatively close). Large demand will help the market recover slowly between the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. Although the impact of demand will spread to the rest of Southeast Asia, it will be mitigated in early 2021. Here, we will cut the smartphone market expectation from + 1.5% to - 2.3%, and the personal computing device market expectation from - 6.8% to - 9.0%.

　　“L”形衰退曲線意味着什麼
What does the "L" recession curve mean

　　在這一情景下，中國製造和物流受到的影響將持續一整年。由於疫情防控檢查和工廠關停，設備組裝供應鏈的運營被階段性打斷，並進入走走停停的狀態。由於疫情前景不明朗，中國消費者和員工信心陷入低迷，工廠全年生產未能實現產能最優化。世界第二大經濟體的衰退波及到其它國家，迫使企業永久關閉或者調整適應新的現實狀況，同時也會導致重大的市場、渠道、供應鏈震蕩。在實施了旅行禁令和海關扣關的地區，旅行、交通、物流將遭受重大影響。大型全球活動，如2020年在東京舉辦的夏季奧運會等，將陷入一片混亂。整個恢復過程也許要歷時數年。在這一情景下，我們對智能手機市場的預期將下調至-10.7%，而對個人計算設備市場的預期將下調至-14.6%。
Under this scenario, manufacturing and logistics in China will be affected for a whole year. Due to the epidemic prevention and control inspection and plant shutdown, the operation of the equipment assembly supply chain was interrupted by stages and entered a state of stop and go. Due to the uncertain prospect of the epidemic and the low confidence of Chinese consumers and employees, the factory failed to optimize its production capacity throughout the year. The recession of the world's second largest economy affects other countries, forcing enterprises to permanently close down or adjust to the new reality, but also leading to major market, channel and supply chain shocks. In areas where the travel ban and customs withholding have been implemented, travel, transportation and logistics will be greatly affected. Large global events, such as the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo, will be in chaos. The whole recovery process may take years. In this scenario, our expectation for the smartphone market will be lowered to - 10.7%, while that for the personal computing device market will be lowered to - 14.6%.

　　最後，當我們觀察重大疫情爆發（例如：SARS、禽流感、寨卡病毒）期間設備市場、消費者信心、全球供應鏈和全球經濟是如何反應時，我們會發現一個共通點：在最緊急的情況下，人類總是能找到解決方案。雖然前景尚不明朗，但恢復（從全球市場到消費者信心）是毫無疑問的。現代人類也許未曾遭遇過規模如此之大的疫情，但此前的每一次疫情，我們都挺過來了。
Finally, when we look at how equipment markets, consumer confidence, global supply chains, and the global economy react during major outbreaks (e.g., SARS, avian influenza, Zika virus), we find one thing in common: in the most urgent situations, humans can always find solutions. While the outlook is not clear, there is no doubt that recovery (from global markets to consumer confidence) will take place. Modern human may not have experienced such a large scale of outbreaks, but every previous outbreak, we have survived.

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