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新浪科技 李楠
疫情之下,交出了一份回血“复活”的成绩单。
3月18日下午,腾讯发布2019年第四季度及全年业绩,其第四季度总收入为人民币1057.67亿元,相比去年同期增长25%,公司权益持有人应占盈利为人民币254.84亿元,同比增长29%。
回溯2019全年,腾讯在第四季度的营收和利润增速都达到四个季度的最高值。这与游戏业务恢复活力有关,与微信生态的日益繁荣有关,同时,也与向产业互联网的转型有关。
游戏回血,再次拉动业绩增长
第四季度,腾讯网络游戏收入同比增长25%,达到人民币302.86亿元。相比之下,在2019年前三季度,这一业务的同比收入变动分别为-0.9%,8%,11%。
基本上,腾讯游戏业务在2019年稳步回升。其第四季度业绩,主要受益于《和平精英》、《PUBG Mobile》等手游在中国及海外市场的增长。财报提及,腾讯海外游戏收入同比增长超过一倍,占整体网络游戏收入的23%。
同时,也跟行业整体变动不无关系。据中国音数协游戏工委发布的2019年中国游戏产业报告,2019年,中国游戏市场实际销售收入2308.8亿元,同比增长7.7%。
疫情之下,包括游戏在内的在线娱乐方式迎来一次成长机遇。随着行业复苏,腾讯游戏业务不再需要太多忧虑。不过,防沉迷政策或许还将在短期内影响这方面的业绩。
2019年11月,国家新闻出版署发布《关于防止未成年人沉迷网络游戏的通知》。根据规定,自《通知》施行之日起2个月内,网络游戏企业须要求用户全部完成实名注册。
在财报发布的前一天,腾讯游戏发布公告,称经过1月份4款产品的试点后,腾讯游戏将从本月开始全面推进防沉迷新规的落实工作,计划上半年内在全部移动游戏中启用新的防沉迷规则。
微信扩张,小程序潜力进一步释放
在通信及社交业务方面,QQ智能终端月活跃账户大幅下降7%,至6.47亿。不过受益于疫情期间在线教学方面的机遇,2020年第一季度有可能大幅回复。
另一方面,微信及WeChat用户仍保持了稳健增长,其合并月活跃账户达11.65亿,同比增长6.1%,与上一季度同比增速基本持平。
毫无疑问,微信对腾讯的意义愈加重要。在第四季度,腾讯网络广告业务收入为202.25亿元,同比增幅为19%,其中,媒体广告收入同比下降24%至人民币39.51亿元,社交及其他广告收入则大增37%至人民币162.74亿元。后者主要受益于微信朋友圈及移动广告联盟的收入增加。
同时,微信小程序生态更加壮大。在2019年,腾讯提升了微信应用内的“搜一搜”及小程序直播功能,以方便用户发现商户的小程序,并帮助商户促进销售转化。小程序的日均交易笔数同比增长超过一倍,总交易额超过人民币8000亿元。
小程序潜力仍在进一步释放,近期,小程序直播能力公测正在进行。据官方数据,3月8日“女神节”中,2000个主播累计直播时长近900小时,通过小程序直播,部分品牌的订单量增长近12倍,部分品牌交易额增长5倍,有品牌单日销售额突破2000万元大关。
此外,微信支付对商家的渗透也在加深。在第四季度,微信商业支付日均交易笔数超过10亿,月活跃帐户超过8亿,月活跃商户超过5000万。
执着短视频,微视压力山大
腾讯再次表达了对短视频业务的关切。“我们预期短视频业务发展需要多年的投入,而我们目前正处于起步阶段。”
腾讯表示,自己曾在长视频领域成功克服后发劣势,同时可借助在社交网络和媒体方面的优势,最近数月亦在短视频领域取得显著进展;因此,对该业务的长期前景充满信心。
腾讯在微视上一直在下功夫,比如财报所列:提升视频识别技术,帮助用户创造内容,并使推荐更加智能化;加入视频红包等创新功能,提升社交视频上传量;凭借自有IP优势,支持网络红人及网红经纪机构的创作。
从数据来看,微视也确实取得不错的成长,2019年第四季,其日活跃用户数环比增长80%,日均视频上传量环比增长70%。但是对手太强大,这样的成长还远远不够。
根据快手、抖音官方数据,快手日活用户在2020年初已突破3亿,截至2020年1月5日,抖音日活用户数已突破4亿。
在长视频方面,腾讯视频付费会员数增长至1.06亿,视频业务全年营运亏损减少至人民币30亿元以下。相比之下,第四季度运营亏损25亿元人民币,全年运营亏损93亿元人民币,订阅会员规模达到1.07亿。
整体来看,长视频表现相对稳健。
疫情之下,B端业务迎发展机遇
更值得关注的,是腾讯B端业务的进展。
受商业支付收入增长,以及因云服务进一步渗透主要垂直领域,腾讯金融科技及企业服务的收入同比增长39%,至人民币299.20亿元。在腾讯各项主要业务中,这部分保持了最高的增长速度。
2018年9月底,腾讯忽然宣布架构调整,“扎根消费互联网,拥抱产业互联网”,向B端业务发力。至2019年结束,其调整经过五个季度。目前看,这一进程稳步推进。
2019年,腾讯云服务收入超过人民币170亿元,增速持续高于市场。受益于销售团队的不断优化及与服务商的合作深化,付费客户数超过100万。
同时,新冠肺炎疫情爆发,在线办公远程教学等成为刚需,为包括腾讯在内的企业提供了发展机遇。
财报提及,在2019年12月底,腾讯推出腾讯会议,其日活跃账户数在两个月内超过1000万;疫情期间有数百万企业使用企业微信恢复办公;腾讯健康码被超过300个县市的9亿用户使用。
实际自疫情爆发之后,投资界普遍指出,在线远程办公将迎来加速发展,相应的互联网办公工具及通讯聊天软件也会迎来一波热潮。不过当疫情过后,如何留住用户,也是包括腾讯在内,当前受益者们需要面临的挑战。
此外,虽然腾讯云业务持续增长,与竞争对手,如云的差距仍旧非常明显。产业互联网的长期竞争,还需谨慎应对。
Sina Technology Li Nan
Under the outbreak, a report card of "Resurrection" was handed over.
In the afternoon of March 18, Tencent released its fourth quarter and full year results of 2019. Its total revenue in the fourth quarter was 105.767 billion yuan, an increase of 25% compared with the same period last year. The company's equity holders should account for a profit of 25.484 billion yuan, an increase of 29% compared with the same period last year.
Looking back to 2019, Tencent's revenue and profit growth in the fourth quarter reached the highest in four quarters. This is related to the revitalization of the game business, the growing prosperity of wechat ecosystem, and the transformation to the industrial Internet.
Game returns blood and drives performance growth again
In the fourth quarter, Tencent's online game revenue increased by 25% year-on-year to 30.286 billion yuan. By contrast, in the first three quarters of 2019, the business's year-on-year revenue changes were - 0.9%, 8% and 11%, respectively.
Basically, Tencent's game business picked up steadily in 2019. Its fourth quarter performance mainly benefited from the growth of mobile games such as peace elite and pubg mobile in China and overseas markets. According to the financial report, Tencent's overseas game revenue more than doubled year-on-year, accounting for 23% of the overall online game revenue.
At the same time, it also has something to do with the overall change of the industry. According to the report of China's game industry in 2019 issued by the game Working Committee of China Audio Digital Association, in 2019, the actual sales revenue of China's game market was 230.88 billion yuan, up 7.7% year on year.
Under the epidemic, online entertainment including games ushered in a growth opportunity. As the industry recovers, Tencent's game business no longer needs to worry too much. However, anti addiction policies may also affect performance in the short term.
In November 2019, the State Press and Publication Administration issued the notice on preventing minors from addicting to online games. According to the regulations, within 2 months from the implementation of the notice, online game enterprises shall require users to complete real name registration.
The day before the financial report was released, Tencent game announced that after the pilot of four products in January, Tencent game will comprehensively promote the implementation of the new rules for anti addiction from this month, and plans to launch new rules for anti addiction in all mobile games in the first half of the year.
Wechat expands and the potential of small programs is further released
In terms of communication and social services, the monthly active account of QQ intelligent terminal dropped by 7% to 647 million. However, the first quarter of 2020 is likely to see a significant recovery, benefiting from online teaching opportunities during the outbreak.
On the other hand, wechat and wechat users still maintained a steady growth, with an active monthly consolidated account of 1.165 billion, a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, basically in line with the year-on-year growth of the previous quarter.
There is no doubt that wechat is more and more important to Tencent. In the fourth quarter, Tencent's online advertising revenue was 20.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Among them, media advertising revenue fell 24% to 3.951 billion yuan, while social and other advertising revenue increased 37% to 16.274 billion yuan. The latter mainly benefits from the increase of income of wechat friends circle and mobile advertising alliance.
At the same time, the wechat applet ecosystem has grown stronger. In 2019, Tencent upgraded the "search and search" and live broadcast function of small programs in wechat applications to facilitate users to discover small programs of merchants and help merchants to promote sales transformation. The number of daily transactions of small programs has more than doubled year on year, and the total transaction volume has exceeded 800 billion yuan.
The potential of applets is still being further released. In the near future, the public test of live ability of applets is underway. According to official data, in the "goddess Festival" on March 8, 2000 anchors had a total live broadcast time of nearly 900 hours. Through small program live broadcast, the order volume of some brands increased nearly 12 times, the transaction volume of some brands increased 5 times, and the single day sales of some brands exceeded 20 million yuan.
In addition, the penetration of wechat payment to businesses is also deepening. In the fourth quarter, the number of daily average transactions of wechat business payment exceeded 1 billion, the monthly active account exceeded 800 million, and the monthly active merchant exceeded 50 million.
Persistent short video, high pressure of micro vision
Tencent once again expressed its concern about the short video service. "We expect that the short video business will take many years to develop, and we are in the initial stage."
Tencent said that it has successfully overcome its backwardness in the field of long-term video, and has made remarkable progress in the field of short-term video in recent months by virtue of its advantages in social networks and media. Therefore, Tencent is confident in the long-term prospects of the business.
Tencent has been working hard on micro vision, such as listed in the financial report: improve video recognition technology, help users create content, and make recommendations more intelligent; add innovative functions such as video red packets, improve the upload volume of social video; support the creation of online celebrities and online Red brokers with its own IP advantages.
From the data point of view, micro vision has also achieved good growth. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the number of daily active users increased by 80% month on month, and the average daily video upload volume increased by 70% month on month. But the opponent is too strong, such growth is far from enough.
Tiktok tiktok official data Kwai Yue users in early 2020 has exceeded 300 million, as of January 5, 2020, the number of users of Kwai Chung has exceeded 400 million.
In terms of long-term video, Tencent's video paid members increased to 106 million, and the annual operating loss of video business decreased to less than 3 billion yuan. In contrast, the fourth quarter saw an operating loss of 2.5 billion yuan, an annual operating loss of 9.3 billion yuan and subscription membership of 107 million yuan.
Overall, long video performance is relatively stable.
Under the epidemic situation, b-end business meets the development opportunity
What deserves more attention is the progress of Tencent's b-end business.
Due to the growth of business payment revenue and the further penetration of cloud services into major vertical areas, Tencent's revenue from financial technology and enterprise services increased by 39% year-on-year to RMB 29.92bn. In Tencent's main businesses, this part has maintained the highest growth rate.
At the end of September 2018, Tencent suddenly announced the structural adjustment, "take root in the consumer Internet, embrace the industrial Internet", and make efforts to the b-end business. By the end of 2019, it has been adjusted for five quarters. At present, this process is steadily advancing.
In 2019, Tencent's cloud service revenue exceeded RMB 17 billion, and the growth rate continued to be higher than the market. Thanks to the continuous optimization of the sales team and the deepening cooperation with service providers, the number of paid customers has exceeded 1 million.
Meanwhile, novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak and online office distance education have become the just needs, providing opportunities for enterprises including Tencent.
According to the financial report, at the end of December 2019, Tencent launched Tencent conference, with daily active accounts of more than 10 million within two months; during the epidemic, millions of enterprises used wechat to resume business; Tencent health code was used by 900 million users in more than 300 counties and cities.
In fact, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the investment community generally pointed out that the online remote office will usher in accelerated development, and the corresponding Internet office tools and communication chat software will also usher in a wave of upsurge. However, after the outbreak, how to retain users, including Tencent, the current beneficiaries need to face challenges.
In addition, although Tencent cloud business continues to grow, the gap with competitors, such as cloud, is still very obvious. The long-term competition of industrial Internet needs to be handled with caution.
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